A new global modelling study published in BMJ Global Health has projected that India could experience the world’s largest long-term impact of chikungunya, with nearly 5.1 million people at risk of infection each year. The findings highlight the persistent and evolving threat of this mosquito-borne viral disease, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Global and Regional Burden Using a random forest model incorporating climatic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, researchers estimated the global long-term average annual chikungunya burden to be around 14.4 million infections (focal scenario), potentially rising to 34.9 million infections in the broader “at-risk” scenario.
Of these, India and Brazil together accounted for nearly 48% of the global burden, with India alone contributing an estimated 0.33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually. In South Asia,…
